ARMLS Year-to-Date Market Analysis...

As we head into September, let’s review ARMLS Closed numbers Year to Date (YTD) and compare them to 2008 to identify trends.

Here are the numbers for 2008 and 2009 as the FBS system reports as of 8/27/2009.
So what are some noteworthy trends?

HUGE TREND: We have closed more transactions in 2009 in 8 months than we did for all of 2008. That’s a significant increase!
Where did the increases come from?

• REO’s have spent most of the year up almost double from last years percentages; 34% for all of 2008, currently 61% YTD 2009, but Pendings show that % coming down (42%).
• Short Sales (SS) have increased dramatically also and continue to be increasing. 2008 had only 2% of closings as SS. Currently 12% of 2009 YTD closings are SS, with Pendings totaling 28%. This doesn’t even account for the +5000 SS that are in AWC statuses.
• Vacant properties continue to account for a large % of all closings; up 9% from 2008’s 76%. Pendings show Vacants dropping which is good news for sellers living in their houses as well as builders, whose buyers are waiting for their houses to sell.

Reviewing the prices figures shows a drop of 32% for the average sales price and a 35% drop for the median.  Again this is comparing all of 2008 to YTD 2009. 2008 started the year @ $313,000 as the Average for January and ended with $192,900 in December.  These just happened to be the high and the low months, with the average for the year coming in at $248,000.  2009 started @ $180,000 in January with August MTD @ $169,000. The range is $159,000 to 180,000 with the average @ $168,000.  The Median for 2008 started @ $220,000 and ended @ $150,000 – which was also the range.  The Median for 2008 was $189,500. 2009 started @ 130,000, bottomed in April @ $115,500-and is currently at $122,500 YTD.

So what does all this mean?
It would appear that supply and demand have arrived in the Valley and are not being ignored.  However there is still a ‘tale of 2 markets’ with the price break around $400,000.  The supply of properties is less than 6 months under $400,000 and climbs well over 6 months above.  Properties need to be priced well to sell and appraise.

2009 will probably be the 3rd highest year for closings this decade, behind only 2004’s 98,900 and 2005’s 104,700.  Yes read that one again!  The Average Sales price and the Median may be the lowest of the decade. Right now-2009 is tracking with 2001 and 2002 figures.

Short Sales are trending up and REO’s are trending down.  However, there are still 47,000 properties currently in Foreclosure and that number did ’shoot up’ for the first 4 months this year.  2008 saw a +16000 increase in ‘Pending’ Foreclosures (from 15,000 to 31,000) and 2009 matched that increase through the end of July.  The number of Bank Owned properties has actually decreased by 3000 (33000 sold versus 30000 foreclosed) through July in 2009.

Article compliments of Jim Sexton with John Hall & Associates. The original article can be found on their blog through http://www.johnhall.com