Thursday, July 9, 2009

I know...it's been way too long between posts!

I have to apologize for my lack of posting, but I am BACK!!
Here is a great article regarding the real estate market - which is crazy right now!!
This is compliments of Mike Orr with The Cromford Report...

Market Summary for June
June produced another strong sales number of 9,333 across all areas and types, just ahead of May 2009. We are still seeing very high numbers of pending listings and record levels of AWC listings (active with contingent contract). The limited availability of financing is a major factor in how fast these convert to closed sales.

June was relatively normal compared with the huge changes of the previous four months. Demand has stabilized at a high level, while overall supply is lower than demand and is still falling. At price points over $500,000 we still have a large over-supply situation, however.

The fall in supply was nothing like as fast as it was between February and May. After something of a lull in March through May, the banks have emerged from all the so-called "moratoriums", the trustees got busy and foreclosure sales hit a level similar to February. The resulting additional supply of REOs was almost enough to meet the buying demand and the inventory of REOs on ARMLS started to level off somewhere above 5,000. I think it would be fair to those who are continually forecasting a "flood of foreclosures" to say that more than 5,000 trustee sales in one month is definitely a big number. However these same analysts seem to believe this number is so large that the market must crumble with the volume. In fact, however, the number of lender owned properties listed as active on ARMLS fell from 5,475 to 5,150 during the month. Moreover the average price per square foot for the REOs that sold to third parties during June rose from $63.77 to $65.64. So the supply was huge, but the demand was even greater. We will have to wait to see which one is strongest in July. With both numbers between 5,000 and 6,000 per month we now have a more evenly matched contest and as a result it becomes more tricky to call the result ahead of time.

Pricing is still increasing
Overall pricing moved higher during June, as evidenced by the sales median, average pricing and average sales price per sq ft.
However certain sectors are still moving lower. Short sales pricing ended lower, as did normal sales. The rise in pricing of REOs, couple with a rise in the number of normal transactions were the two main factors that led to the overall pricing increase. Single family detached pricing is stronger than for other dwelling types.

In many cities single family detached pricing made a distinct move upwards during the Spring quarter. These include:
Anthem
Apache Junction
Chandler
El Mirage
Fountain Hills
Glendale
Goodyear
Litchfield Park
Maricopa
Phoenix
Queen Creek
Sun Lakes

In other cities, pricing can best be described as "moving sideways". In the following cities, there is no longer a prevailing downward trend, but we have not seen a sustained and determined move upwards so far:
Arizona City
Avondale
Casa Grande
Gilbert
Laveen
Mesa
Paradise Valley
Peoria
Sun City West
Surprise
Tempe

The cities where pricing appears to be still falling is now a fairly short list:
Buckeye
Cave Creek
Gold Canyon
Scottsdale
Sun City

Notices of foreclosure issued in June were similar in number to May, and 8,500 to 9,000 per month seems to have become the norm. It is also normal to see about 2,500 foreclosures canceled each month.

The current market conditions, together with the usually seasonal fall in volume during the third quarter, suggests that July may be a consolidation period like June rather than a month of dramatic change like February through May.

No comments:

Post a Comment