The Phoenix real estate market is hard for a lot of people to figure out. Tom Ruff and Michael Orr are not two of them. Armed with the most accurate data available, an advanced understanding of statistics, and a humorous tone - they are shining the Phoenix real estate light on the rest of the world. Please allow them the opportunity to shine by reading their latest housing report.
Cromford calls the bottom
On April 2nd an article on Azcentral.com basically stated anyone calling the bottom of the housing market anytime soon would be a fool. On April 6th, Mike Orr of The Cromford Report called the bottom, does 4 days translate into soon? How does Mike know this, the answer, he’s got better stuff. A licensing agreement with ARMLS allows him to analyze daily MLS listings, sales and pending contracts. He also has access to daily publicly recorded sales and foreclosure data as well as the very best property address and zip code files available. With the most current and precise data in hand he puts it through a rigid cleansing process. From there, the data goes into his disciplined and insightful model and voila. So you see, stuff is getting better every day.
Preliminary April 2009 Report
April 6, 2009 established a bottom for $/SF sales pricing across the Greater Phoenix area. This does not mean that prices will not go lower in certain areas - they will. But the overall average price per square foot put in a convincing low on April 6th and has been moving sideways to slightly up ever since. The increasing sales volume tends to reinforce the significance of this pattern. I would claim that the cities of Phoenix, Avondale, Gilbert, Mesa, Peoria and Queen Creek are making the best cases for establishing a bottom, while Chandler, Goodyear, Scottsdale, Tempe, Glendale and Surprise still have some work to do. Of course we need to continue to watch to see if the pattern strengthens or fades. The current readings for Pending $/SF suggest more sideways movement in the near term. Every city showed improvement in April over March with supply falling and demand rising. In some areas the fall in supply was breathtakingly swift. Pending sales rose yet again, actual sales continued their strong advance, and listing success rates climbed.
To illustrate the change in the market since January, let’s look at Months Supply for May 1st vs. Jan 1st:
Avondale 4.4 (was 8.9)
Chandler 5.7 (was 9.1)
Gilbert 5.2 (was 7.9)
Glendale 3.2 (was 9.1)
Goodyear 3.8 (was 8.6)
Mesa 4.4 (was 8.9)
Peoria 4.9 (was 10.3)
Phoenix 3.4 (was 9.0)
Queen Creek 2.9 (was 6.1)
Scottsdale 14.3 (was 19.4)
Surprise 3.3 (was 7.2)
Tempe 6.7 (was 8.7)
Some very positive news!
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